Bangladesh Political Crisis 2024–25: Yunus Caretaker Govt, India’s Concerns, China’s Role. Current Affairs
What Happened in Bangladesh? (Genesis of the Crisis)
- In 2024, students in Bangladesh started huge protests.
- They were angry about the government job quota system, which they felt was unfair.
- But soon, the protests became bigger:
- high unemployment
- rising prices
- corruption
- people feeling that Sheikh Hasina’s government had become too controlling
- The situation got out of control.
- Violence broke out, police collapsed, and the government lost control.
👉 Finally, Sheikh Hasina left the country (took refuge in India), and her government fell.
Who is ruling now?
- A temporary government (caretaker government) has been formed.
- It is led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus (Nobel Peace Prize winner).
- His job is to run the country until new elections are held.
- The new government has:
- Banned Hasina’s party (Awami League) for now
- Started legal cases against many leaders of the old government
- Promised free and fair elections in 2026
But things are still tense and unstable.
Present Situation in Bangladesh
- The country is divided and tense.
- Minorities (especially Hindus) feel unsafe in some areas.
- Economic problems continue.
- Political fights are intense.
- The new caretaker government is facing:
- Pressure to reform
- Pressure to hold proper elections
- Pressure to control law-and-order
Bangladesh is in a fragile and uncertain phase.
What Does Bangladesh Political Crisis Mean for India?
Sheikh Hasina was India’s closest friend in the neighbourhood.
After she left:
- Bangladesh asked India to send her back.
- This created tension between India and the new Bangladesh government.
- India is confused:
- If India sends her back → People may say India supports the new regime.
- If India doesn’t send her → Bangladesh may feel India is against the new government.
The earlier smooth India–Bangladesh partnership is now shaken.
Who Else Is Interfering? (Third Party Role)
China
- China wants more influence in Bangladesh.
- As relations with India weaken, China may step in with money, projects, and political support.
Pakistan
- Pakistan sees an opportunity to rebuild ties with Bangladesh.
- Some groups inside Bangladesh may be more receptive now.
Western Countries
- They want more democracy and human rights.
- They are pressuring the caretaker government for free elections.
What Can Happen Next? (Likely Outcomes)
1. Smooth Elections (Best Case)
- All parties allowed to contest.
- Peaceful election in 2026.
- Bangladesh stabilizes.
- Relations with India become normal again.
2. Continued Unrest (Most Likely Right Now)
- Political violence continues.
- Awami League remains banned.
- No stability.
- India–Bangladesh ties remain cold.
- China gains more influence.
3. Army or Strongman Rule (Worst Case)
- If chaos increases, the military may take control.
- This would damage democracy.
- Region becomes tense.
- China and Pakistan may get closer to Bangladesh.
What This Means for India — Strategic and Policy Implications
For India – the developments in Bangladesh matter a lot:
- India must carefully recalibrate its policy: the days of a close, friendly Dhaka under Hasina are over. New Delhi may need to hedge: engage pragmatically with Yunus but also build ties with other emerging actors, in anticipation of uncertainty.
- Cross-border security, refugee influx, minorities’ safety — these become bigger concerns. An unstable Bangladesh can lead to migratory pressures, smuggling, radicalisation, and border tensions.
- Strategic competition with China — if Bangladesh pivots more toward Beijing or Islamabad, India’s influence in the Bay of Bengal and broader South Asia could weaken. That could have long-term implications for Indian regional interests.
- Need for diplomacy that balances principles (democracy, human rights, minority protection) with pragmatism (national security, bilateral trade, connectivity).
Summary– Bangladesh Political Crisis
- Bangladesh is going through major political turmoil.
- Sheikh Hasina, India’s close ally, is gone.
- Dr. Yunus is ruling temporarily, but things are unstable.
- India–Bangladesh relations are uncertain for the first time in 15 years.
- China and Pakistan are trying to take advantage.
- The next 1–2 years will decide the future of South Asia’s balance of power.
